Autori
Canepa, Alessandra
Alqaralleh, Huthaifa
Almajali Mutah, Awon

Titolo
Navigating Energy Market Cycles: Insights from a Comprehensive Analysis.
Periodico
Università degli studi di Torino. Dip. Di Economia e Statistica Cognetti de Martiis. Working paper series
Anno: 2024 - Volume: 12 - Fascicolo: 22 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 29

This study explores the complex dynamics of energy market cycles under the influence of financial deregulation and technological advancements. Employing the extended Bry-Boschan Quarterly (BBQ) algorithm and the Cox hazard model, it identifies market turning points, factoring in geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and other systemic influences. The findings reveal pronounced asymmetry in energy market expansion phases, highlighting the critical drivers of market fluctuations. Policymakers are urged to consider these dynamics, especially as interest rate and US dollar shocks propel market expansion, while effective management is key to mitigating associated instabilities. Economic growth positively impacts energy prices during contraction periods, emphasizing the role of growth-stimulating policies. The nuanced effects of Conferences of Parties (COP) meetings are introduced as an emerging area for further research.



Testo completo: https://www.est.unito.it/do/home.pl/Download?doc=/allegati/wp2024dip/wp_22_2024.pdf

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