Autori
Virgillito, Maria Enrica
Sbardella, Angelica
Cresti, Lorenzo

Titolo
The Automotive Industry and the Transition to Electric Mobility. An Input-Output Scenario Analysis for Italy, 2021-2030
Periodico
L'industria
Anno: 2025 - Fascicolo: 3 - Pagina iniziale: 435 - Pagina finale: 469

Which will be the economic costs of inaction if the Italian automotive industry fails to transition towards electric mobility? In this paper, we simulate an Input-Output economy, evaluating the economic impacts of demand shocks on employment and value-added in the Italian automotive sector and its supply chain. To do so, we project the effects of demand losses from 2021 to 2030. This approach allows us to capture intersectoral dependencies, illustrating how changes in final demand for cars propagate through production processes, affecting both direct and indirect economic activities. The simulation results predict that the industry could lose between 70 percent and 80 percent of its direct employment and value-added. The social costs of inaction are also examined through the simulation of a redundancy scheme ("Cassa Integrazione Guadagni"), that accounts for 2 billion USD in fiscal stimulus. Finally, we conclude by presenting an alternative proposal for industrial policies aimed at mitigating these impacts and strengthening the industry and its supply chain.



SICI: 0019-7416(2025)3<435:TAIATT>2.0.ZU;2-C
Testo completo: https://www.rivisteweb.it/download/article/10.1430/118822
Testo completo alternativo: https://www.rivisteweb.it/doi/10.1430/118822

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