Autori: Pini, Marco, Bottoni, Anton Giulio, Mariz, Davide
Titolo: Uncertainty Beyond Exposure: Trump’s Tariffs and Italian firms’ Expectations
Periodico: L'industria
Anno: 2026 - Fascicolo: 1 - Pagina iniziale: 43 - Pagina finale: 70

This paper explores the effects of President Donald Trump’s «liberation day» tariffs on Italian manufacturing enterprises and their forward-looking economic expectations. The evolving US trade policy – marked by escalating tariff threats, temporary suspensions, and eventual negotiation with the EU, culminating with the agreement for a 15 percent base tariff in July – has created a climate of uncertainty that is weighing heavily on firms’ outlooks. We find that tariffs significantly reduce enterprises’ expectations for 2025, independent of actual exposure to the US market. Instead, we find that the extent of a firm’s export diversification – measured by the number of foreign markets served – fully explains the variation in expectations. Less diversified firms are shown to be far more vulnerable to tariffs than others. This vulnerability is particularly acute among smaller enterprises, which not only tend to be less diversified but also possess fewer resources to absorb external shocks. Our findings highlight that exposure to global trade policy uncertainty extends well beyond firms directly engaged with the US, underscoring diversification as a critical determinant of resilience and revealing structural asymmetries that penalize smaller, less diversified enterprises.




SICI: 0019-7416(2026)1<43:UBETTA>2.0.ZU;2-V
Testo completo: https://www.rivisteweb.it/download/article/10.1430/119804
Testo completo alternativo: https://www.rivisteweb.it/doi/10.1430/119804

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